리차드 돈키언(Richard Donchian)

 

리차드 돈키언(Richard Donchian)은 미국의 상품 및 선물 거래자이자 트렌드 추종(Trend Following) 전략과 돈키언 채널(Donchian Channels)의 창시자로 잘 알려져 있습니다. 그는 체계적인 투자 접근법을 개발한 선구자로, 현대 기술적 분석과 선물 거래의 기초를 마련했습니다.

 리차드 돈키언의 생애

- 출생: 1905년 9월, 미국 코네티컷주 하트퍼드에서 아르메니아 이민자 가정에서 태어남.
- 학력: 예일대학교에서 경제학 학사 학위를 취득하고, MIT 슬론 경영대학원에서 MBA를 취득.
- 초기 경력: 가족의 동양 카펫 사업에서 일하다가 주식시장에 관심을 가지게 되었으며, 1929년 대공황 당시 손실을 경험한 후 기술적 분석과 가격 역사 연구에 몰두.


 주요 업적
1. Futures, Inc. 설립 (1949년):
   - 세계 최초의 공개적으로 관리되는 선물 펀드를 설립하여 일반 투자자들에게 선물 시장에 참여할 기회를 제공.
   - 이는 오늘날 관리형 선물(Managed Futures) 산업의 기초를 마련했습니다.

2. 돈키언 채널(Donchian Channel) 개발:
   - 특정 기간 동안(일반적으로 20일) 자산의 최고가와 최저가를 나타내는 기술적 지표.
   - 이 지표는 시장 변동성을 측정하고, 돌파(Breakout) 지점을 식별하며, 트렌드를 추적하는 데 사용됩니다.
   - 상단 밴드는 최고가, 하단 밴드는 최저가를 나타내며, 이를 통해 지지선과 저항선을 파악할 수 있습니다.

3. 트렌드 추종 전략(Trend Following):
   - 돈키언은 "가격은 지속적으로 움직이는 경향이 있다"는 원칙을 바탕으로 트렌드 추종 전략을 개발했습니다.
   - 가격이 상단 밴드를 돌파하면 매수 신호로, 하단 밴드를 돌파하면 매도 신호로 해석하는 간단한 규칙 기반 시스템을 제안.

4. 교육 및 출판 활동:
   - 그는 Commodity Trend Timing이라는 주간 뉴스레터를 발행하며 기술적 분석과 트렌드 추종 전략에 대한 통찰을 제공.
   - 그의 글은 많은 트레이더들에게 영향을 미쳤으며, 오늘날에도 널리 사용되는 투자 원칙을 제시했습니다.

 돈키언 채널 전략

 

- 돌파 매매(Breakout Trading):
  - 가격이 상단 밴드를 돌파하면 상승 추세로 간주하여 매수.
  - 가격이 하단 밴드를 돌파하면 하락 추세로 간주하여 매도.

- 평균 회귀(Mean Reversion):
  - 가격이 하단 밴드 아래로 떨어질 경우 과매도로 간주해 매수.
  - 가격이 상단 밴드 위로 상승할 경우 과매수로 간주해 매도.

- 변동성 분석:
  - 채널 폭이 좁아지면 변동성이 낮아지고 큰 움직임이 예상되며, 채널 폭이 넓어지면 변동성이 높아진 상태를 나타냄.

 리차드 돈키언의 철학
- 그는 복잡한 수학적 모델보다는 단순하고 규칙적인 시스템을 선호하며, "시장은 트렌드를 따른다"는 기본 원칙에 충실했습니다.
- 시장 예측보다는 가격 움직임을 따라가는 것이 성공적인 투자로 이어진다고 믿었습니다.


 현대 투자에 미친 영향

- 돈키언의 트렌드 추종 전략은 오늘날에도 많은 트레이더와 펀드 매니저들에게 영감을 주고 있으며, 대표적으로 "터틀 트레이딩 시스템(Turtle Trading System)"이 그의 원칙에서 파생되었습니다.
- 그의 기여는 기술적 분석 도구와 관리형 선물 산업의 발전에 중요한 역할을 했습니다.

 

 결론
리차드 돈키언은 체계적인 거래 규칙과 단순한 트렌드 추종 접근법으로 금융 시장에 혁신을 가져온 인물입니다. 그의 돈키언 채널은 변동성 분석과 트렌드 식별에 있어 강력한 도구로 자리 잡았으며, 그의 철학은 오늘날에도 많은 투자자들에게 중요한 지침으로 남아 있습니다.

Citations:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Donchian
[2] https://lightningchart.com/blog/trader/donchian-channels
[3] https://alchemymarkets.com/education/indicators/donchian-channel/
[4] https://signaltradinggroup.com/richard-donchian/
[5] https://trendspider.com/learning-center/donchian-channel-trading-strategies/
[6] https://www.trendfollowing.com/richard_donchian/
[7] https://www.investopedia.com/donchian-channels-formula-8415235
[8] https://www.turtletrader.com/trader-donchian/
[9] https://patternswizard.com/richard-donchian/
[10] https://help.ctrader.com/knowledge-base/indicators/volatility/donchian-channel/
[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7gzyEnPTwg
[12] https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-use-donchian-channel-identify-trend-following
[13] https://auroraprize.com/en/richard-donchian-pioneer-of-technical-commodity-trading
[14] https://groww.in/p/donchian-channels
[15] https://www.seykota.com/tribe/Resources/Donchian/index.htm
[16] https://www.avatrade.com/education/technical-analysis-indicators-strategies/donchian-channel-trading-strategies
[17] https://rddonchian.org/aboutus.htm
[18] https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/capital-markets/donchian-channels/
[19] https://www.streetdirectory.com/travel_guide/37458/investment/richard_donchian___learn_the_from_a_trading_legend.html
[20] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121714/how-are-donchian-channels-used-when-building-trading-strategies.asp